Las Vegas Aces still have the most to lose despite A’ja Wilson foregoing FIBA

With the WNBA season being interrupted by the FIBA Women’s World Cup in Berlin from Sept. 4-13, it’s worth investigating how this interruption will impact teams and players, who have roughly four games to figure it out again before the WNBA Playoffs begin on Sept. 27. It’s no surprise that the Las Vegas Aces had three starters selected for Team USA: Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and A’ja Wilson. Wilson decided not to play in the tournament for health reasons, which is the smart move given her recent appearances on the injury report for her back.

It’s not the first time the Aces have played together in non-WNBA action during the regular season. The WNBA accommodated the 2024 Paris Olympic Games by stopping play in mid-July of 2024, and didn’t resume until mid-August. Four Las Vegas starters were on the USA Olympic roster, and they came back playing about as well as they did prior. The Aces entered the 2024 break 16-8 and finished 27-13, so the Las Vegas duo of Gray and Young might benefit from the opportunity to play together this time around, too. Fatigue certainly didn’t appear to be an issue until after they won the 2024 WNBA Championship. The Aces were out of sync to start the 2025 season, likely from playing so much basketball the year prior.

The WNBA’s top seed, Minnesota, loses just one starter, Napheesa Collier, to the tournament, and the break allows other players recovering from injury, like Courtney Williams, to get extra rest going into the playoffs. Collier missed much of the year recovering from surgeries on both ankles and has played just 12 games, so playing in the FIBA World Cup is actually a blessing for her.

The Lynx recently lost back-to-back games for just the second time this season. One of those teams, the second-seeded Valkyries, mauled Minnesota 80-66 on Monday, Aug. 24. Like Minnesota, Golden State loses just one starter, Gabby Williams, to Team France. The Dream, who hung 89 points on the Lynx in a victory on Sunday, Aug. 30, will have Angel Reese and Rhyne Howard playing together on Team USA, which could conserve some chemistry they’ve developed in Atlanta.

While interrupting any season is never ideal, the top teams in the WNBA aren’t likely to limp into the playoffs as a result of the break. 

But these Lynx aren’t those Lynx, or even the 2024 Lynx, who had a championship “stolen” from them, as head coach Cheryl Reeve famously said. WNBA commissioner Cathy Engelbert didn’t do the league any favors by awarding New York the championship trophy while donning a dress featuring the New York City skyline.

Reeve says this team can do what those Lynx teams failed to because of a new way to score: off the dribble. Olivia Miles is the biggest reason for that new weapon, who’s been an MVP candidate in her rookie season – which has been one of the best debut seasons in league history.

“The ’24 and ’25 teams were more of a spread-it-out – we shot a lot of threes. This team is actually able to drive and get a lot of rim pressure…but we are very, very capable from three,” Reeve told the North Las Vegas News prior to the game against the Aces on Aug. 15. They won that game 92-87.

The Lynx haven’t shot it particularly well from long range in their past two losses, shooting just 36% against the Dream and 32% against the Valkyries. Both teams defend the perimeter well, but when the Lynx shoot 40% or better, they typically win. In fact, they’ve lost just twice when shooting 40% or better from three-point range – once to Las Vegas and once to New York.

Minnesota doesn’t live or die by the three anymore, and that, not the FIBA World Cup interruption, has the biggest impact on the Aces’ chances of repeating as champions. And it’s why Wilson, the undisputed best player in the world on both ends of the floor, won’t be playing for the most dominant national team ever to play a team sport. Team USA hasn’t lost a major tournament game in 20 years. Her country can win it all without her, but Las Vegas can’t, and likely won’t if Chelsea Gray or Jackie Young are anything but their usual selves upon their return from Berlin.